In this study we are analysing four different scenarios:
(1) Status quo scenario
(2) Reference case scenario 2010 IC only
This scenario case is a simple business-as-usual scenario of the status quo scenario which has been projected until the year 2010.
(3) Scenario 2010 With Transrapid
Under this scenario, all of the air traffic and all of the express railway traffic between Hamburg and Berlin is replaced by the magnetic suspension railway, according to the assumptions the financing concept for the Transrapid project is based on.
(4) Scenario 2010 With ICE, without Transrapid
Instead of the Transrapid there is an optimised ICE-connection (with inclination technology). Air traffic is eliminated.
The forecast year 2010 has been chosen because the amounts of traffic projected in the Federal Traffic Routes Plan (Bundesverkehrswegeplan) of 1992 and the planning for the Transrapid are based on that year. Herein, we presume the not very probable scenario H (90 % economic growth between 1988 and 2010) as assumed in the Federal Traffic Routes Plan. In order to verify the statements of the supporters of the Transrapid with regard to the environmental benefits, one has to necessarily make use of the official Transrapid planning scenario.
In order to solve the aforementioned tasks, the following multi-stage procedure is necessary:
The specific energy demand (energy per person-kilometre) of the different vehicles used to transport passengers (car, bus, airplane, railway and Transrapid) in the corridor Hamburg - Berlin has to be identified. While the data regarding the energy demand in road and air traffic can be taken from existing studies*, computer-based simulations have to be undertaken to determine the specific energy demand for the railway and the Transrapid.
The primary energy demand has to be calculated for each vehicle used to transport passengers, based on the data for the secondary energy demand. Hereby, the various energy efficiencies and respective energy losses that are related with energy conversion and distribution are taken into account.
The amount of passenger transport in the corridor Hamburg - Berlin has to be estimated or taken from existing forecast data which eventually have to be corrected for each single vehicle used to transport passengers (number of passengers, amount of traffic in person-kilometres) for today, for the reference case scenario 2010 and for the two scenarios 2010.
The identified amount of traffic has to be multiplied with the data of the specific energy demand in order to obtain the total primary energy consumption per vehicle used to transport passengers.
Finally, the exhaustion of CO2 emissions has to be calculated, based on the data
of primary energy demand.